Effects Of Extreme Climate Change Research Articles

Laying foundations for transformation: Insights from local government engagement on climate-resilient rural water services in Nepal

Transformative change in how local governments support rural water services is required to accommodate the increasingly extreme effects of climate change on water service systems. This study explores the potential for contextualised soft systems thinking activities to prepare local government officials with responsibilities pertaining to rural water services in Nepal to shift towards more transformative thinking. First, the study presents the findings of focus group discussions in two rural districts of Nepal that identified common climate-related problems for rural water access including water shortages, contamination, and unequal burden of impacts. Second, we facilitated workshops with local government and non-government stakeholders, drawing on the focus group findings to frame the challenges for rural water linked to climate change that require local government response. We designed the workshops drawing on ‘transformative spaces’ concepts and included soft systems thinking activities to foster systemic perspectives. Participants learned about worldviews, leverage points, rich pictures, root cause analysis, and theory-of-change based action planning. Following the workshops, the study team participated in reflective sensemaking in which they deliberated on their experiences and notes from facilitating the workshops to assess the extent to which the participants demonstrated transformative thinking about rural water systems. The workshop approach showed promise in shifting how local government participants think about rural water services beyond technical fixes towards addressing deep-seated issues. However, further work is required to foster new relationships necessary to support transformation and grapple with ethical dilemmas pertaining to power dynamics at community and government levels. Nevertheless, the approach presented here is a replicable, low-cost way to prepare local government stakeholders in Nepal for transforming their thinking and systems to ways that enable sustainable rural water service delivery under threats of climate change.

Better soon than never: climate change induces strong phenological reassembly in the flowering of a Mediterranean shrub community

Abstract Background and Aims Flowering is a key process in the life cycle of a plant. Climate change is shifting flowering phenologies in the Northern Hemisphere, but studies with long data series at the community level are scarce, especially those considering the consequences of phenological changes for emerging ecological interactions. In the Mediterranean region, the effects of climate change are stronger than the global average and there is an urgent need to understand how biodiversity will be affected in this area. Methods In this study, we investigated how the entire flowering phenology of a community comprising 51 perennial species from the south of the Iberian Peninsula changed from the decade of the 1980s to the 2020s. Furthermore, we have analysed the consequences of these changes for flowering order and co-flowering patterns. Key Results We have found that the flowering phenology of the community has advanced by ~20 days, which is coherent with the increasing temperatures related to climate change. Individual species have generally advanced their entire flowering phenology (start and end) and increased their flowering duration. The early flowering has resulted in a re-organization of the flowering order of the community and generated new co-flowering assemblages of species, with a slight trend towards an increase of shared flowering time among species. Conclusions The advanced flowering phenology and changes in flowering duration reported here were of unprecedented magnitude, showcasing the extreme effects of climate change on Mediterranean ecosystems. Furthermore, the effects were not similar among species, which could be attributed to differences in sensitivities of environmental cues for flowering. One consequence of these changes in flowering times is ecological mismatches, indicated by changes in the flowering order and co-flowering between decades. This new scenario might lead to new competitive or facilitative interactions and to the loss or gain of pollinators.

A Conceptual Approach towards Improving Monitoring of Living Conditions for Populations Affected by Desertification, Land Degradation, and Drought

Addressing the global challenges of desertification, land degradation, and drought (DLDD), and their impacts on achieving sustainable development goals for coupled human-environmental systems is a key component of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. In particular, Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 15.3 aims to, “by 2030, combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil, including land affected by desertification, drought and floods, and strive to achieve a land degradation-neutral world”. Addressing this challenge is essential for improving the livelihoods of those most affected by DLDD and for safeguarding against the most extreme effects of climate change. This paper introduces a conceptual framework for improved monitoring of DLDD in the context of United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) Strategic Objective 2 (SO2) and its expected impacts: food security and adequate access to water for people in affected areas are improved; the livelihoods of people in affected areas are improved and diversified; local people, especially women and youth, are empowered and participate in decision-making processes in combating DLDD; and migration forced by desertification and land degradation is substantially reduced. While it is critical to develop methods and tools for assessing DLDD, work is needed first to provide a conceptual roadmap of the human dimensions of vulnerability in relation to DLDD, especially when attempting to create a globally standardized monitoring approach.

Evolution of Extreme Rainfall and Temperature Indices in the Nakambé Watershed at the Bagré Outflow (Burkina Faso)

Climate change is now a global phenomenon with serious implications for many countries. Like other countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Burkina Faso is also vulnerable to the extreme effects of climate change, although few studies have been carried out, even though several vital sectors, such as agriculture and the livestock, forestry are strongly affected. The objective of this work is to study the evolution of rainfall and temperature extremes in the Nakambé watershed at the synoptic stations of Ouagadougou, Ouahigouya and Pô. ClimPACT2 was used to calculate the extreme rainfall and temperature indices. The results show that cumulative rainfall above the 95th percentile (R95p) increases by 147.2 mm and 141.3 mm respectively in Ouahigouya and Ouagadougou. However, in Pô, a slight downward trend in the index (-0.17 mm) was observed. Cumulative extremely wet rainfall (R99p) is increasing at all stations. The frequencies of cold nights (TN10p) and cold days (TX10p) are decreasing while those of warm nights (TN90p) and warm days (TX90p) are increasing. The application of break detection tests to rainfall indices shows breaks in the time series. The PETTITT, HUBERT and LEE and HEGHINIAN tests show a break in 2008 for the PRCPTOT index in Ouagadougou with an excess of 20.8% from 2009 to 2018. With these same tests, a break is detected in 2006 in Ouahigouya on the same index followed by a 29.5% surplus

Results of integrated archaeological-environment historical research of Szigetvár – Turbék Vineyard Hill

Suleiman I died during the Ottoman siege of Szigetvár on 6th September 1566 in the vineyard hill of Szigetvár–Turbék, Hungary. At the location of his death and temporary burial site, a memorial place (türbe) was established in the 16th century. According to written sources it was built in the 1570s, and the tomb complex was protected by a fortification (palisade) and a moat system from the north in the 17th century. The 250 cm deep moat was revealed by geological boreholes, and excavated by archaeologists for, among others, archaeobotanical, anthracological, malacological, pollen analytical and archaeozoological analysis. During the formation of the archaeological profile, Ottoman and Habsburg coins having dating importance and archaeological findings were found from the filling of the moat. 30 litres of sediment samples were taken at 5 cm intervals for archaeobotanical analysis, and four radiocarbon (AMS) dating were carried out on Hordeum seeds. The cleaned surface of the profile was sampled at 10 cm intervals for sedimentological, geochemical and archaeozoological analysis. Based on some tens of thousands plant and some hundreds of animal, mainly domestic animal, remains we were able to reconstruct ploughed lands, orchards, kitchen gardens and vineyards, pasture lands, forest patches, gallery forest, as well as settlements. We were able to detect the land-economic zones (horticulture, forestry, cropfield, grazing zones) that closely followed the Thünen circles. Based on the malacological remains, the climate deterioration of the Little Ice Age (LIA) could also be demonstrated in the first two thirds of the 17th century. At the same time, it was clearly established that the extreme effects of climate change on agriculture was not so drastic in the vineyards hill site due to its exposure situation, exogenous geological and geological conditions. Thus, the negative effects of the Little Ice Age were modified on the dry south facing, lower altitude slopes, covered with loess and human-influenced soil (anthrasol). At least, extremes like those detected in the North Atlantic did not occur here. So, we can conclude that the mosaic nature of the Carpathian Basin could buffer the negative effects of the Little Ice Age through the microregions characterized by a milder and drier microclimate. The memorial place and the destroyed town (Ottoman name: Türbe kasabası) may have become depopulated between 1692 and 1693, when the area was divided into agricultural zones and new gardens, arable and pasturelands were established. The memorial place and the town were covered by the demolished material and soil. The site was re-identified and excavated as a part of an archaeological, historical and geoarcheological research work that started in 2015.

Winter condition variability decreases the economic sustainability of reindeer husbandry.

Wild and semidomesticated reindeer are one of the key species in Arctic and subarctic areas, and their population dynamics are closely tied to winter conditions. Difficult snow conditions have been found to decrease the calving success and survivability of reindeer, but the economic effects of variation in winter conditions on reindeer husbandry have not been studied. In this study, we combine state-of-the-art economic-ecological modeling with the analysis of annual reindeer management reports from Finland. These contain local knowledge of herding communities. We quantify the occurrence probabilities of different types of winters from annual management reports and analyze the effects of this variation in winter conditions on reindeer husbandry using an age- and sex-structured bioeconomic reindeer-lichen model. Our results show that difficult winters decrease the net revenues of reindeer husbandry. However, they also protect lichen pastures from grazing, thereby increasing future net revenues. Nonetheless, our solutions show that the variability of winter conditions overall decrease the net income of herders compared to constant winter conditions. Low lichen biomass appears to make reindeer management more sensitive to the effects of difficult winter conditions. We also found that it is economically sensible to use supplementary feeding during difficult winters, but the net revenues still decrease compared to average winters because of the high feeding costs. Overall, our analysis suggests that the increasing variability of winter conditions due to climate change will decrease net revenues in reindeer husbandry. This decrease will still occur even if the most extreme effects of climate change do not occur. This study shows that combining a state-of-the-art bioeconomic model and practitioner knowledge can bring compatible insights, ideas, results, and a bottom-up perspective to the discussion.

Strategies for selecting rice varieties in anticipation of the climate change impacts in swampland

The efforts to increase rice production in swampland are faced with various obstacles, including extreme climate change (drought and flooding). To overcome the drought and flooding conditions is by planting suitable rice varieties for its conditions. During el nino, very early maturity varieties could be planted such as Inpari 12, 13, 18, 19, and 20 (99 to 104 days old). Somewhat drought tolerant varieties, such as Inpari 38, 39, and 40. In la nina conditions could be planted Inpara 3, 4, and 5 because these varieties were moderately submergence tolerant. Inpara 3 was tolerant to submergence for 6 days, while Inpara 4 and 5 were tolerant for 14 days in the vegetative phase. Furthermore, the Inpari 29 and 30 Ciherang Sub-1 could also submergence tolerant for 14 and 15 days, respectively. By planting early maturity and submergence tolerant varieties, it is hoped that rice production in swampland can be maintained under climate change. This paper is a review and the purpose of this paper is to anticipate the effects of extreme climate change (el-nino and la-nina) through using rice varieties in swamplands and strategy for selecting the varieties so that they can produce under extreme climate changes.

Effects of Extreme Climate Change in 2016 and Its Correlation with EWH Variability in Indonesia

Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission, which is dedicated specifically to the Earth’s gravity change monitoring, also can be used to observe water mass variations. GRACE data is provided through temporal mass variations, primarily water volume variations such as surface water and groundwater changes. GRACE satellite data can be obtained in monthly spherical harmonics coefficients depicting the change of surface mass density. This study investigates the effects of extreme climate change during 2016 in Indonesia by utilizing the GRACE data. Here, the surface mass density change is converted into equivalent water height (EWH). Since the amount of rainfall in Indonesia indirectly dominates the water mass variability, the EWH is then compared with the precipitation over the same period of this study. The result showed that during 2016, the highest and lowest EWH was presented in August with the highest value of 23.527 cm over the Aceh region and the lowest EWH of 0.665 cm over the Nusa Tenggara region. The most increased precipitation during 2016 is in the Kalimantan region, with a value of 0.610 mm/hr in February. The lowest one is in the Nusa Tenggara region, with a value of 0.009 mm/hr in August. For comparison with the EWH, the precipitation rates were converted into monthly precipitation in cm. The correlations between EWH and precipitations variabilities showed different results in different study zones, with the highest correlation in zone 6, which covers North Kalimantan. In comparison, the lowest correlation occurred in zone 25, which covers Yamdena and Tragan islands_ area in the Moluccas

The fluctuation of rice production of tidal swampland on climate change condition (Case of South Kalimantan Province in Indonesia)

Indonesia has a wet tropical climate which is part of its territory crossed by the equator. The rice planting period in Indonesia follows the climatic conditions generally divided into two planting seasons, namely the rainy season from October to March and the dry season from April to September. Almost every 3 to 5 years extreme climate changes occur namely El-Nino and La-Nina which have an impact on rice production. Nationally, the extreme climate phenomenon above showed the effect on rice production. El-Nino during the year 1970–2010 was reported to cause a decrease in rice production around -4.08%, while La-Nina in the same period caused an increase in production by about 1.78%. However, the two extreme climatic conditions had reduced rice productivity by -0.50% and -0.65%, respectively. Most of the tidal swamplands have long been cleared and used for the cultivation of lowland rice. In an effort to optimize tidal swampland as a source of rice production in the future, several strategic actions are needed. The purpose of this paper is to uncover the effects of extreme climate change (El-Nino and La-Nina) on rice production and productivity in tidal swamplands and strategic efforts to overcome the decline in rice production due to the extreme climate changes.

Comparative transcriptomics of an arctic foundation species, tussock cottongrass (Eriophorum vaginatum), during an extreme heat event

Tussock cottongrass (Eriophorum vaginatum) is a foundation species for much of the arctic moist acidic tundra, which is currently experiencing extreme effects of climate change. The Arctic is facing higher summer temperatures and extreme weather events are becoming more common. We used Illumina RNA-Seq to analyse cDNA libraries for differential expression of genes from leaves of ecologically well-characterized ecotypes of tussock cottongrass found along a latitudinal gradient in the Alaskan Arctic and transplanted into a common garden. Plant sampling was performed on a typical summer day and during an extreme heat event. We obtained a de novo assembly that contained 423,353 unigenes. There were 363 unigenes up-regulated and 1,117 down-regulated among all ecotypes examined during the extreme heat event. Of these, 26 HSP unigenes had >log2-fold up-regulation. Several TFs associated with heat stress in previous studies were identified that had >log2-fold up- or down-regulation during the extreme heat event (e.g., DREB, NAC). There was consistent variation in DEGs among ecotypes, but not specifically related to whether plants originated from taiga or tundra ecosystems. As the climate changes it is essential to determine ecotypic diversity at the genomic level, especially for widespread species that impact ecosystem function.

Protective effect of potassium and chitosan supply on growth, physiological processes and antioxidative machinery in sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) under drought stress

Drought stress is one of the extreme effects of climate change causing large losses in production of crop plants. The risk of recurrent droughts has increased in next decades hence, the development of shot-gun, inexpensive and effective approaches is essential to ensure high yield of crops in drought-prone areas of the world. Exogenous application of nutrients such as potassium (K) has been reported to increase abiotic resistance and improve yield in crops however, knowledge regarding interaction of K with osmoprotectants like chitosan (Ct) still remains elusive. Here, we report the effects of individual or combined K (using K2SO4 as a source) or Ct application on growth, physiological processes and antioxidative defense system of sunflower under drought stress. At first, various doses of K (0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 g/l) and Ct (0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5 g/l) were foliar applied to evaluate their role in improving plant biomass, water status and total chlorophyll in drought-induced seedlings of sunflower. The optimized K (11.48 g/l) and Ct (0.28 g/l) doses were further tested in second experiment to understand the underlying mechanisms of drought tolerance. Foliar K + Ct spray markedly enhanced the leaf gas exchange characteristics, increased proline, soluble proteins, and free amino acids, upregulated antioxidant defense system and helped to maintain plant water status in sunflower exposed to drought stress. The impact of drought stress was more pronounced at vegetative than reproductive stage and positive effects of combined K and Ct application were related to improved physiological and metabolic processes to improve yield and quality of sunflower under drought stress.

Climate Change and Farming Response in a Temperate Oceanic Zone—the Exploitation of a Karstic Region in Western Ireland in the Third and Second Millennia BC

This article explores the start and end of a period of intensive farming in a karstic region on the west coast of Ireland in the late third and early second millennia BC in relation to episodes of climate change. Human responses to climate change in prehistory have been most frequently studied in regions prone to aridity and drought such as the Near East and the eastern Mediterranean where past climate shifts may have had more extreme effects and are likely to have left strong proxy signals. It is these same regions where early complex societies were located and the collapse or reorganization of these large complex societies can leave similarly strong traces in the archaeological record. In contrast, the present study is focused on the west coast of Ireland, an Atlantic island in a temperate oceanic climate region at a time when the societies living there are best described as small-scale segmentary societies. Geography therefore militated against the most extreme effects of climate change and there were no large complex societies to collapse; nevertheless there is evidence that climate change impacted these societies.

Climate Ethics and Policy in Africa

In this article, I use case studies from some African countries to determine whether or not African climate management policies have been guided by ethical principles. I argue that although climate change is fundamentally an ethical issue, African policymakers have not paid sufficient attention to ethical principles in this regard. I argue that the major ethical principles embodied in different African traditions can assist African and non-African countries to address the challenges occasioned by climate change. Finally, I suggest that technological societies whose current emissions most exceed their fair share of emissions ought to give attention to justice, and play their respective roles in averting the most extreme effects of climate change. KeywordsAfrican ethics, climate ethics, climate change, climate policy, inter-generational justice

Measuring rainfall in West Africa using cellular networks

With the dry Sahara Desert in the north and the tropical Sudanian savanna in the south, West Africa is a key spot for monitoring the extreme effects of climate change, such as the increasing rate of harsher droughts and higher floods.

Emergency Managers Confront Climate Change

Emergency managers will have to deal with the impending, uncertain, and possibly extreme effects of climate change. Yet, many emergency managers are not aware of the full range of possible effects, and they are unsure of their place in the effort to plan for, adapt to, and cope with those effects. This may partly reflect emergency mangers’ reluctance to get caught up in the rancorous—and politically-charged—debate about climate change, but it mostly is due to the worldview shared by most emergency managers. We focus on: extreme events; acute vs. chronic hazards (floods vs. droughts); a shorter event horizon (5 years vs. 75–100 years); and a shorter planning and operational cycle. This paper explores the important intersection of emergency management, environmental management, and climate change mitigation and adaptation. It examines the different definitions of terms common to all three fields, the overlapping strategies used in all three fields, and the best means of collaboration and mutual re-enforcement among the three to confront and solve the many possible futures that we may face in the climate change world.

Why responses to dramatic climate change are important?

Climate change is proceeding at an unprecedented pace with global temperatures and sea-levels setting new records almost every year (IPCC, 2007). While these changes are worrisome due to effects on all biological systems and hence also on humans, even more problematic changes may be in the waiting, because not only is the climate changing, but it is also becoming more extreme. Extreme temperatures, rainfall, droughts, storms and fires are already becoming more common with severe consequences for humans, their crops and domestic animals and all wild organisms. For example, the severe heat wave in 2003 caused an excess mortality of 2,600 humans in France alone (INSERM, 2003), and primary production was suppressed across Europe (Ciais et al. 2004). There is a long history of biological studies of extreme events going back to Bumpus’ (1895) study of mortality and selection on house sparrows Passer domesticus during a severe snowstorm. Extreme climatic events are poorly studied simply because they are rare, and such events have been defined to happen less than 5% of the time relative to the expected distribution (http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov). This lack of studies of the biological consequences is highly problematic because we know very little about the ability of plants and animals to adapt to such extreme situations. Here a number of specialists reviewed the scattered literature on effects of extreme climate change. Moller starts by analyzing the behavioral effects of extreme climatic events, while Wingfield et al. review the physiological underpinnings of such behavioral responses. Next, Moreno & Moller review the demographic and life-history consequences of extreme climatic conditions, showing that fecundity and survival are dramatically reduced. Dolenec et al. analyze a case study of response of a bird species to extreme climatic conditions. Martinez & Merino provide an over-view of the parasitological consequences of extreme climate and review the consequences for domestic animals and humans. Finally, Jiguet et al. provide a review of the consequences of extreme climatic events on communities of animals. This special section on biological effects of extreme climate change raises many questions and provides guidelines for future studies in this area of major significance.